Interestingly enough, the answer is no. Going back to 1933, the data shows that it really doesn’t matter what happens during mid-term elections, as it relates to the performance of the stock market when the election is over. Our friends at Capital Group put together a couple charts to illustrate this point, but the one below shows why it doesn’t matter whether we have a majority in one party (unified); a president in a different party than the Congress majority; or a split. Markets have seen double-digit returns after these mid-term elections.
Another interesting glance is the chart below that shows that in the past 23 mid-term elections, there have only been three times where the sitting president retains all seats.
What we can count on is greater market volatility (up and down days) as the pundits examine and speculate on voter behavior, so please take their reports with a grain of salt and know we’re watching what the economy is doing, what the Federal Reserve is saying, and what company earnings are showing. Our best advice is that you keep your eye on your objectives, as we will. If you have any questions or concerns, please don’t hesitate to call us.
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